[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 1 10:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 154/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity has fallen to low levels with only a 
few C1 flares occurring over the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions 
are mostly ambient. Low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next 3 days with some chance of isolated M class flares. 
A coronal hole high speed stream from a southern polar coronal 
hole is expected to arrive within the next 24 hours. ACE solar 
wind measurements since around 2300UT show an enhancement in 
speed, density and Bt which may herald the arrival of this high 
speed stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212222
      Cocos Island         5   21111222
      Darwin               8   22222223
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            6   22112222
      Alice Springs        6   22212222
      Norfolk Island       4   12101222
      Culgoora             9   2--2---3
      Gingin               7   22112322
      Camden               7   22212223
      Canberra             6   22212222
      Launceston           9   22212333
      Hobart               7   22212322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     8   12123322
      Casey               21   45532223
      Mawson              21   34323345
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Darwin              76   (Active)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2221 1133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb    12    Unsettled
02 Feb    12    Unsettled
03 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Unsettled conditions are expected due to a new coronal 
hole high speed wind stream expected to arrive within the next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jan   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      106
Jan      89
Feb      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb    95    Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    83400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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