[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 30 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 29 December.
Region 2473(S21W33) produced a few C-class flares, the largest
being a C6.8 event that peaked at 1032UT. Solar wind speed showed
a gradual decrease from ~400 km/s to ~370 km/s during the UT
day today while the Bz component of IMF remained close to the
normal value during this period, staying slightly south (at times
up to -5 nT) for relatively longer periods of time. Low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days with
the possibility of M-class event and small possibility of isolated
X-class event from region 2473. Solar wind stream is expected
to get strong later on 30 December due to the expected arrival
of a CME that was observed on 28 December in association with
an M1 event. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 29/0320UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21012212
Cocos Island 3 21001122
Darwin 4 21012212
Townsville 5 21112212
Learmonth 6 21103222
Alice Springs 4 21012212
Norfolk Island 2 10012111
Gingin 4 10012222
Camden 6 13113211
Canberra 4 11022221
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 11013301
Casey 12 33322233
Mawson 13 33112244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 40 Quiet to major storm
31 Dec 25 Unsettled to minor storm
01 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 63 was issued on 28 December
and is current for 30-31 Dec. Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity were observed on UT day 29 December. Activity levels
are expected to rise to major storm levels on 30 December and
then gradually decline to minor storm through to unsettled levels
on 31 December due to an expected impact from a CME that was
observed along with the M1 flare on 28 December. Aurora sightings
are likely on 30 and 31 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
31 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 29 December were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Minor to significant degradations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be expected on 30
and 31 December due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. HF conditions may be expected to return
to mostly normal levels on 1 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
40%
31 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
01 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 85 was issued
on 28 December and is current for 30-31 Dec. Observed MUF's in
the Australian/NZ regions for the UT day 29 December were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Minor to significant degradations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be expected on 30
and 31 December due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. HF conditions in the region may be expected
to return to mostly normal levels on 1 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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