[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 31 10:30:41 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 30 December.
Region 2473(S21W47) produced today's largest event, a C1 flare
that peaked at 1905 UT. Solar wind speed stayed close to 360
km/s during the UT day today while the Bz component of IMF varied
between +/-5 nT during this period. Low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days with the possibility
of M-class. Solar wind stream is expected to get strong later
on 31 December due to the expected arrival of a CME that was
observed on 28 December in association with an M1 event. ACE
EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
30/0720UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11102101
Cocos Island 1 11101100
Darwin 2 10102101
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 2 01112101
Alice Springs 2 10102101
Norfolk Island 2 11102001
Gingin 2 10102101
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 2 11202000
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 00113200
Casey 11 34323112
Mawson 13 32312225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 45 Quiet to major storm
01 Jan 25 Unsettled to minor storm
02 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 63 was issued on 28 December
and is current for 30-31 Dec. Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity were observed on UT day 30 December against the expectations
of activity levels rising to major storm levels. The CME that
was expected to raise the activity levels to major storm levels
on 30 December, seems to be travelling slower than the estimations.
The CME shock may arrive on 31 December and raise the geomagnetic
activity levels to major storm levels on 31 December and then
gradually decline to minor storm through to unsettled levels
on 1 January. Aurora sightings are likely on 31 December and
1 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
01 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 30 December were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Minor to significant degradations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be expected on 31
December and 1 January due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. HF conditions may be expected to return
to mostly normal levels on 2 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
40%
01 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
02 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 85 was issued
on 28 December and is current for 30-31 Dec. Observed MUF's in
the Australian/NZ regions for the UT day 30 December were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Minor to significant degradations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be expected on 31
December and 1 January due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. HF conditions in the region may be expected
to return to mostly normal levels on 2 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 68300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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