[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 15 issued 2333 UT on 28 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Dec 29 10:33:40 EST 2015

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    1253UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 112/63

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels on UT day 28 December. 
Region 2473(S22W19) produced a C8 (0028UT) and an M1.8 flare 
(1245 UT). The M1.8 flare came with a coronal mass ejection that 
seems to have a significant earthward directed component. It 
is expected to arrive on 30 December. Solar wind speed showed 
a gradual decrease from ~500 km/s to 400 km/s during the UT day 
today while the Bz component of IMF remained close to the normal 
value during this period. Low levels of solar activity may be 
expected for the next three days with the possibility of M-class 
event and small possibility of isolated X-class event from region 
2473.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222102
      Cocos Island         4   22121101
      Darwin               4   22122101
      Townsville           9   23233112
      Learmonth            7   22233102
      Alice Springs        6   22232102
      Norfolk Island       4   22122001
      Gingin               8   32233102
      Camden               7   22223112
      Canberra             5   32222001
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     5   21223101
      Casey               16   43443212
      Mawson              14   32443213

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           27   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2122 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec     8    Quiet to unsettled
30 Dec    30    Unsettled to major storm
31 Dec    20    Unsettled to minor storm

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were 
observed on UT day 28 December. Nearly similar conditions may 
be expected on 29 December. Activity levels may rise to major 
storm levels on 30 December and then gradually decline to minor 
storm through to unsettled levels on 31 December due to an expected 
impact from a CME that was observed along with the M1 flare on 
28 December. Aurora sightings are likely on 30 and 31 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor
31 Dec      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 28 Dec were near monthly 
values. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected on 29 December. 
Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions and depressions 
in MUFs may be expected on 30 and 31 December due to expected 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Dec    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec    65    Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                40%
31 Dec    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Observed MUF's in the Australian/NZ regions for the 
UT day 28 Dec were near monthly values. Nearly similar HF conditions 
may be expected on 29 December. Minor to significant degradations 
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be expected on 30 
and 31 December due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels on these days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 531 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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