[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 22 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 23 10:30:37 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0336UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity reached moderate levels for the UT
day, 22 Dec. One M-class flare and a number of smaller C-class
flares were observed during the past 24 hours, with the strongest
M1.6 observed at 22/0334 UT from Region 2473. This active region
was located in the far southeast quadrant (S23E69) at the time
of eruption. Another active Region 2472 (N04E63) produced a C-class
flare (C6.3) at 22/1338 UT. Both these active regions are on
the east side (and rotating towards solar center) and have shown
evidence of growth. The 2-day outlook (23-24 Dec) is for low
to moderate solar activity with C-class flares likely and a small
chance of M class flares. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery during
the last 24 hrs. The solar wind in the past 24 hours was steady,
between 400 km/s and 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between +/- 10 nT and Bt was between 5-12 nT. These perturbations
in solar wind and IMF conditions are the waning effects of the
19 Dec CME. The 2-day outlook (23-24 Dec) is for the solar winds
to gradually decline to ambient levels as the CME effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 22443122
Cocos Island 9 22432021
Darwin 11 22442121
Townsville 12 22443122
Learmonth 16 22453132
Alice Springs 12 22443122
Norfolk Island 10 22432122
Gingin 14 22443232
Camden 12 22443122
Canberra 13 22442232
Hobart 13 22443222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 23353122
Casey 45 46753343
Mawson 25 44443254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 37 6654 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet and at
times reached unsettled levels during the last 24 hours (UT day
22 Dec). The 2-day outlook (23-24 Dec) is for mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions and at times becoming unsettled. The conditions are
forecasted due to solar winds been slightly strong, greater 400
km/s.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-fair Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressed HF support expected over the next 24 hrs mainly
in the high and mid-latitude regions due to the aftermath of
the 19 December CME that produced G2 level geomagnetic storms.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 50 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 22 December
and is current for 22-23 Dec. IPS SWF HF Communications Warning
83 was issued on 22 December and is current for 22-24 Dec. Observed
MUF's for the UT day 22 Dec were about 40 points below the predicted
monthly values. There is a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts
for the next two days due to flaring potential from active sunspot
regions (Region 2472 and 2473). Strong geomagnetic activity associated
with 19th December CME has caused this MUF degradation. The 2-day
outlook (23-24 Dec) is MUFs are expected to trend gradually towards
the predicted monthly values. A delayed recovery is expected
in the high latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 52300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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