[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 24 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/-- 0040UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity reached moderate levels for the UT
day, 23 Dec. One M-class flare and a few C-class flares were
observed during the past 24 hours, with the strongest M4.7 observed
at 23/0040 UT from Region 2473. This active region was located
in the southeast quadrant (S22E63) at the time of eruption. It
generated a coronal mass ejection (CME) with an estimated speed
of 530 km/s, a Type II radio burst of estimated shock speed 1300
km/s and Type IV radio burst. Preliminary investigation suggest
that this CME is unlikely to impact Earth. More updates will
be provided upon the completion of the model runs. Another active
Region 2472 (N04E59) produced a C-class flare (C7.5) at 23/0414
UT. Both these active regions are on the east side (and rotating
towards more direct Earth facing position) and continue to show
strong flaring potential. The 2-day outlook (24-25 Dec) is for
low to moderate solar activity with C-class flares likely and
a chance of M class flares. The solar wind in the past 24 hours
was gradually enhanced from 400 km/s to 500 km/s. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between +/-5 nT and Bt was between 5-10
nT. The 2-day outlook (24-25 Dec) is for the solar winds to remain
at these level or even undergo a minor enhancement. These moderately
high solar winds are in response to high speed streams emanating
from a southern hemisphere coronal hole now taking a geoeffective
position on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22222232
Cocos Island 6 12112232
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 9 22222233
Alice Springs 8 22222232
Norfolk Island 6 22222122
Gingin 10 22222243
Camden 8 22222232
Canberra 9 22222233
Hobart 9 22232232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 23134322
Casey 36 36654333
Mawson 31 45334455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2124 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet and at
times reached unsettled levels during the last 24 hours (UT day
23 Dec). The 2-day outlook (24-25 Dec) is for mostly quiet and
unsettled geomagnetic conditions and at times could reach to
minor storm levels. The conditions are forecasted due to moderately
high speed solar winds streaming from a southern hemisphere coronal
hole now taking a geoeffective position on the solar disk. A
favourable IMF Bz may lead to aurora sightings from Tasmania
during the local night of 24 Dec. More updates on this will be
provided latter.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor-normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressed HF support expected over the next 24 hrs mainly
in the high regions. These regions will take slightly longer
to remove from the long duration CME that arrived on the the
19 December. Improved HF support are expected in the mid and
low latitude regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 22
December and is current for 22-24 Dec. Observed MUF's for the
UT day 23 Dec were near the predicted monthly values. There is
a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts for the next two days
due to flaring potential from active sunspot regions (Region
2472 and 2473). The 2-day outlook (24-25 Dec) is MUFs remain
strong, near the expected predicted monthly values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list