[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 22 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 0104UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 1020UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: The solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT
day, 21 Dec. Two M-class flares and a number of smaller C-class
flares were observed during the past 24 hours, with the strongest
M2.8 observed at 21/0103 UT from Region 2472. This active region
was located near the northeast limb at the time of eruption.
This M2.8 flare generated a coronal mass ejection (CME) and a
Type II radio burst. However, the CME is well off the Sun-Earth
line and no effects on Earth are expected from this event. The
other M-class flare (M1.1) was also from active region 2472,
and C-class flares were from regions 2472 and 2473. Since both
these active regions are on the east limb (and rotating towards
solar center), the 2-day outlook (22-23 Nov) is for low to moderate
solar activity with C class flares likely and small chance of
M class flares. The solar wind in the past 24 hours was between
450 km/s to 350 km/s, and is showing some evidence of small increase
in intensity in the last 6 hrs of the current UT day. The current
solar wind speed is around 420 km/s. The Bz component changed
from strongly southward at the beginning of the UT day to weakly
northward by the end of the UT day. Bt was between 10-20 nT.
These perturbations in solar wind and IMF conditions are the
waning effects of the 19 Dec CME. The 2-day outlook (22-23 Dec)
is for the solar winds to gradually decline to normal levels
as the CME effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 33343223
Cocos Island 12 33233223
Darwin 13 33333223
Townsville 14 33343223
Learmonth 16 33344223
Alice Springs 14 33343223
Norfolk Island 14 33343223
Gingin 20 44344323
Camden 17 33353223
Canberra 13 33343212
Hobart 20 44354212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
Macquarie Island 35 45565313
Casey 21 44344324
Mawson 26 44453434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 68 3645 5766
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Dec 6 Quiet
24 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions reached moderate geomagnetic
storm levels during the last 24 hours (UT day 21 Dec). The DST
dipped to a low of -170 nT at 20/2200 UT. The two day outlook
is geomagnetic conditions will be quiet and at times could reach
to unsettled levels. These conditions are due to waning effects
of the 19 Dec CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
23 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor-normal
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF support expected on Dec 22 and 23 mainly
in the high and mid-latitude regions due to the aftermath of
the 19 December CME that produced G2 level geomagnetic storms.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 45% through the day
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 55% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 30% at other times
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec 30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Dec 50 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 21 Dec were about 80 points
below the predicted monthly values. There is a chance of isolated
shortwave fadeouts for the next two days due to flaring potential
from active sunspot regions (Region 2472 and 2473). Strong geomagnetic
activity during the last 24 hours has caused this MUF degradation.
Depressed MUF conditions are expected to last for few days (22-23
Dec) and then gradually return to near monthly predicted values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 19.1 p/cc Temp: 44900 K Bz: -13 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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