[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 15 issued 2340 UT on 20 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 21 10:40:19 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: A number a minor C-class flares were observed over the
UT day Dec 20, the largest being a long-duration C 3.8 level
event on the East limb peaking at 0513UT. Weak NW-directed CME's
were observed after 0330 UT and after 2000UT. None of the above
events are likely to have significant geoeffective consequences.
Sunspot regions on the visible disk showed some decay over the
UT day Dec 20. There is an approaching active region now at the
E limb. Solar wind velocity remained elevated following the CME-induced
shock observed Dec 19, but declined gradually from 450 to 400
km/s. IMF Bz component remained neutral to positive until 0230UT,
when it underwent a strong negative excursion to -17nT. Bz maintained
this strong Southward bias for the remainder of the UT day and
is near -20nT at the time of report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 38 45345555
Cocos Island 22 34234453
Darwin 31 45335454
Townsville 40 45445555
Learmonth 41 55345555
Alice Springs 37 35345555
Norfolk Island 36 45355454
Gingin 40 44345565
Camden 41 35455555
Canberra 31 35345454
Hobart 46 35456465
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 93 25567875
Casey 43 67433443
Mawson 66 37744743
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 94 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 38
Planetary 59
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1100 1344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 25 Active
22 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 19 December
and is current for 20-21 Dec. A strong and sustained Southward
excursion in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field after 0230UT on Dec 20, following a CME impact at 1530UT
Dec 19, led to higher than expected geomagnetic activity on Dec
20. IMF Bz retained a strong negative bias for the remainder
of the UT day Dec 20 and remains at around -20nT at the time
of report issue. Observed geomagnetic activity in the Australasian
region was at Unsettled to Minor Storm levels throughout the
UT day Dec 20. Some Major Storm intervals were observed at southern
Australian latitudes. Conditions at higher latitudes were at
Active to Minor Storm levels, with occasional Major Storm intervals.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to continue at Active levels
with Minor Storm periods day one of the forecast period. Activity
should gradually decline to mostly Quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressed HF support expected Dec 21 due to ongoing
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25%.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with extended periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Dec 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 20 December
and is current for 21 Dec only. Moderately to strongly enhanced
ionospheric conditions observed throughout the region early on
Dec 20 following onset of significant geomagnetic activity. As
a further consequence of that ongoing activity, widespread moderate
depressions have been observed after local dawn on Dec 21. Ongoing
geomagnetic activity on day one may result in moderately depressed
ionospheric conditions in the Australasian region. Expect a gradual
return to mostly normal MUF support by day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 67100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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