[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 16 10:30:28 EST 2015 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: No significant solar X-ray activity observed Dec 15. 
Active region 2470 (N14E47) maintains a low probability of M-class 
flares. Solar wind speed remains elevated at around 550 km/s 
under the influence of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. 
The IMF Bz component showed fluctuations to +/-8nT with no significant 
sustained periods of Southward bias. A weak shock was observed 
in the solar wind at 1230UT on 14 Dec. ACE EPAM data indicates 
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 15/0355UT, which 
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 
24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   33223322
      Cocos Island        14   52223322
      Darwin              11   33223322
      Townsville          11   33223322
      Learmonth           15   33224423
      Alice Springs       12   33224312
      Norfolk Island       8   33212212
      Gingin              15   43224323
      Camden              11   3322332-
      Canberra             9   33213311
      Hobart              15   34224422    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    20   43235511
      Casey               30   46543333
      Mawson              38   65533445

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20   2201 2555     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 13 December 
and is current for 15-16 Dec. The regional geomagnetic field 
at low to mid latitudes was Quiet to Unsettled with Active intervals 
observed 00-06 and 12-18UT. At high latitudes Unsettled to Minor 
Storm conditions were observed throughout the UT day. Expect 
similar conditions day one of the forecast period due to persistence 
of the present coronal hole wind stream. Conditions should gradually 
decline days two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of disturbance possible mainly at high latitudes 
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec    35    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Dec    35    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Dec    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 13 December 
and is current for 15-17 Dec. Mild to moderate MUF depressions 
observed throughout the Australasian region Dec 15. Moderate 
to strong sporadic-E conditions observed at times S Aus region 
during local daytime. Periods of disturbance with minor MUF depressions 
are expected days one and two of the forecast period due to elevated 
geomagnetic activity. Disturbance is likely to persist into day 
three, contracting to S Aus/Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    54300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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