[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 15 issued 2331 UT on 14 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 15 10:31:58 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed Dec 14.
A number of impulsive radio burst events were observed throughout
the UT day. Solar wind velocity declined from 450 to below 400
km/s 00-12UT and the IMF Bz component was neutral. After 12 UT,
with the onset of the anticipated coronal hole high speed wind
stream, solar wind velocity increased to around 550 km/s at the
time of report issue. The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-10nT
with some sustained periods of Southward bias. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain moderately disturbed days one to three.
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1230UT on 14 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 11124444
Cocos Island 13 01113444
Darwin 13 11114443
Townsville 18 21124454
Learmonth 22 01114555
Alice Springs 20 11124554
Norfolk Island 11 10113344
Gingin 21 11123555
Camden 15 11124444
Canberra 13 01-23344
Hobart 14 11123444
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 46 00123864
Casey 23 34323535
Mawson 48 33123558
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2222 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 20 Active
16 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 13 December
and is current for 15-16 Dec. The geomagnetic field was Quiet
00-12UT. After 12 UT with the onset of an anticipated coronal
hole high speed wind stream, geomagnetic conditions reached Unsettled
to Minor Storm levels at all latitudes. Geomagnetic disturbance
is expected to persist days one and two, gradually declining
towards higher magnetic latitudes on day three. In the IPS magnetometer
data for 14 Dec, a weak (19nT) impulse was observed at 1322UT
and a weak (9nT) impulse was observed at 1429UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of disturbance possible mainly at high latitudes
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 45 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 13 December
and is current for 15-17 Dec. Observed MUF's were mostly near
predicted monthly values Dec 14 over the Australian region. Periods
of disturbance with minor MUF depressions are expected days one
and two of the forecast period due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
Disturbance is likely to persist into day three, contracting
to S Aus/Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 86100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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