[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Dec 17 10:30:25 EST 2015

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 126/79

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: An isolated C6 level flare was produced by active region 
2468 (S14W02) at 0903UT. A weak semi-halo CME was observed in 
LASCO imagery after 10UT, probably in association with this flare. 
This event may produce a weak solar wind shock Dec 18-19. A second 
slightly stronger halo CME was observed after 16UT. This is probably 
a far-side event. Solar wind parameters were elevated early in 
the UT day due to persistence of a coronal hole wind stream. 
Wind speeds reached 600 km/s and IMF Bz reached -10nT early in 
the UT day. Solar wind parameters rapidly declined after 05UT, 
with wind speed steadily falling to 400 km/s at the time of report 
issue. IMF Bz remained mildly positive for the remainder of the 
UT day, limiting magnetic geoeffectivity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   32100011
      Cocos Island         2   22110001
      Darwin               3   32100001
      Townsville           4   32100012
      Learmonth            3   32100001
      Alice Springs        3   32000001
      Norfolk Island       2   22100011
      Gingin               3   32100011
      Camden               3   32100011
      Canberra             5   32000222
      Hobart               4   33100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     5   33110011
      Casey               19   45531112
      Mawson              11   44321112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12   4411 3310     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec     5    Quiet
18 Dec     5    Quiet
19 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters were elevated early in the UT 
day Dec 16 due to persistence of a coronal hole wind stream. 
Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled at most stations 00-06UT, 
with Active intervals at high latitudes. Solar wind parameters 
then rapidly declined, resulting in mostly Quiet conditions for 
the remainder of the day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions days 
one to three. A weak solar wind shock may occur Dec 18-19, with 
minor transitory magnetic disturbance.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Dec    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mildly depressed local day, otherwise
      near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Townsville enhanced 20% around local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values
      to mildly enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Scott Base no data.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec    60    Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec    60    Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 13 December 
and is current for 15-17 Dec. Ionospheric support recovered strongly 
Dec 16, despite some geomagnetic activity early in the UT day. 
Periods of strong sporadic-E conditions observed at Perth local 
evening. Most stations moderately enhanced around local dawn 
Dec 17. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days. Occasional 
periods of disturbance possible Antarctic region day one.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 523 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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