[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 15 issued 2351 UT on 27 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 28 09:51:20 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 0545UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
region 2403 (S16W48) the source of a M2.9 flare peaking at 0544UT
(LASCO imagery indicates no earth directed CME component) as
well as numerous low level C-class events flares. Region 2403
has reduced in size over the last 24 hours and its magnetic complexity
has simplified, though it still has the potential for further
M-class events and possible X-class. Solar wind speed ranged
between 350km/s to 400km/s over the UT day while Bz has been
predominantly southward for almost the entire UT day with long
sustained periods of magnitude -10nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to increase in the next 24 hours with the onset of a coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream. Solar activity is expected
to be Low to Moderate over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 18 24433433
Cocos Island 13 23422333
Darwin 17 23433433
Townsville 19 34433433
Learmonth 19 23333534
Alice Springs 22 23533533
Norfolk Island 17 34433332
Culgoora 18 24433433
Camden 20 24443433
Gingin 25 33434544
Canberra 17 24433432
Melbourne 24 24443543
Launceston 30 25454543
Hobart 23 24444443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 56 35575654
Casey 14 34332323
Mawson 77 68642466
Davis 22 35532324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 28 3435 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 25 Active
29 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 27 August and
is current for 27-28 Aug. Quiet to Active conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Active conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours with possible Minor Storm periods due to expected
coronal hole effects. This is to be followed by Unsettled to
Active conditions for 29Aug and Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 30Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio maximum usable frequencies are unusually depressed.
Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-30% below long term predicted
monthly values. Increased geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours and predicted for the next 2 days is expected
delay ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Aug 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Aug 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 27 August
and is current for 27-29 Aug. Depressed ionospheric support observed
across all AUS/NZ regions for the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 2-3 days due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 22200 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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