[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 15 issued 2353 UT on 26 Aug 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 27 09:53:07 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  C9.0    1354UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Very low to low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region 
2403 (S16W35) the source of numerous C-class flares, the largest 
being a long duration C9.5 event peaking at 1353UT. Region 2403 
remains relatively unchanged in size and in magnetic complexity 
and has the potential for further M-class events and possible 
X-class. Solar wind speed declined gradually from ~425km/s to 
be ~360km/s at the time of this report. Bz was southward for 
almost the entire UT day, fluctuating at first between +1nT and 
-4nT from 00UT to 05UT whereafter it increased in magnitude with 
a sustained southward period of -8nT from 11UT through to the 
time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to increase 
over the next 24 hours due to the effects of a negative polarity 
equatorial positioned coronal hole that moved into geoeffective 
position 25Aug. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate 
over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      18   23354332
      Cocos Island        13   22332433
      Darwin              15   23344232
      Townsville          22   23355333
      Learmonth           21   22355333
      Alice Springs       18   13354332
      Norfolk Island      15   22354222
      Culgoora            18   23354332
      Camden              18   23354332
      Gingin              23   33345443
      Canberra            14   13244332
      Melbourne           21   23354343
      Launceston          23   24355333
      Hobart              18   23354332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    41   23566552
      Casey               13   33333232
      Mawson              58   55454765
      Davis               27   44453533

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2332 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug    25    Active
28 Aug    20    Active
29 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet to Minor storm levels observed over the last 24 
hours. Sustained southward Bz conditions produced Minor Storm 
conditions 11-14UT. Active to possible Minor storm conditions 
expected for 27Aug with the anticipated arrival of the high speed 
solar wind stream from the negative polarity equatorial positioned 
coronal hole. Active conditions for 28Aug and mostly Unsettled 
with possible Active periods for 29Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
28 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio maximum usable frequencies are unusually depressed. 
Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-30% below long term predicted 
monthly values. Increased geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours and predicted for the next 3 days is expected 
delay ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Aug    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug    35    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Aug    35    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Aug    40    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 26 
August and is current for 26-27 Aug. Moderately depressed ionospheric 
support observed across all AUS/NZ regions for the last 24 hours. 
A further reduction of MUFs possible for 27-28Aug due to increased 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    59300 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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