[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 15 issued 2350 UT on 25 Aug 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 26 09:50:46 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region 
2403 (S14W27) producing numerous C-class events flares, the largest 
being a C4.3 event at 0631UT. Region 2403 remains relatively 
unchanged in size and in magnetic complexity with the potential 
for further M-class events and possible X-class. Solar wind speed 
ranged between 400km/s to 450km/s over the UT day while Bz ranged 
fluctuated between +2nT and -5nT. A equatorial positioned coronal 
hole has moved into geoeffective position with an anticipated 
arrival of its high speed solar wind stream on the 27Aug to early 
28Aug. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate over 
the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12221221
      Cocos Island         4   11221120
      Darwin               6   22221122
      Townsville           5   12221122
      Learmonth            6   12220231
      Alice Springs        5   11221221
      Norfolk Island       6   12231121
      Culgoora             6   12231121
      Camden               7   12231222
      Gingin               7   11221331
      Canberra             4   11221121
      Melbourne            8   12232232
      Launceston           9   22332231
      Hobart               8   12232231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     7   11332221
      Casey                7   32221222
      Mawson              18   23421354
      Davis               10   22422132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3322 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug     6    Quiet
27 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active
28 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions expected for 26Aug. The -ve polarity equatorial positioned 
coronal hole is currently located on the central meridian. Its 
expected influence on the solar wind stream is for Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions with possible Active periods late in the UT day for 
27Aug and Unsettled to Active conditions for 28Aug.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio maximum usable frequencies are unusually depressed. 
Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-30% below long term predicted 
monthly values. MUF's are expected to increase slightly over 
the next 24-48 hours, but a combination of both increased geomagnetic 
conditions around 28Aug (coronal hole) and reduced solar activity 
(as current active region 2403 moves off the visible disk) is 
expected delay ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted 
values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Aug    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug    45    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Aug    50    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Aug    40    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 24 August 
and is current for 24-26 Aug. Moderately depressed ionospheric 
support observed across all AUS/NZ regions for the last 24 hours. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days. A further 
reduction of MUFs possible for 28Aug due to possible geomagnetic 
Activity from coronal hole effects.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    72100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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