[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 15 issued 2351 UT on 24 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 25 09:51:37 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.6 0733UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: The solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours
with region 2403 producing a M5.6 flare at 0733UT along with
numerous C-class events. H-alpha and LASCO imagery analysis indicates
that the associated CME is not full halo and no significant earth
directed component. Region 2403 continues to show signs of growth
and the further chance of M-class events and possible X-class.
Solar wind speed gradually declined from ~500km/s to ~400km/s
over the UT day while Bz ranged fluctuated between +/-4nT. Solar
activity is expected to be moderate over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 21222111
Cocos Island 2 11211010
Darwin 5 22221111
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 3 21222000
Alice Springs 5 22222101
Norfolk Island 4 22222010
Culgoora 5 21222111
Camden 7 22233111
Gingin 4 21222110
Canberra 3 21222000
Melbourne 6 21232111
Launceston 7 22332111
Hobart 4 11232100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 9 11352000
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 13 33332332
Davis 10 13432211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 29 3265 5333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
26 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 24 August and
is current for 24-25 Aug. Quiet conditions observed over the
last 24 hours as the effects of the recent Coronal Hole high
speed solar wind stream diminish. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for 25Aug with the chance of Active periods due
to possible increase in solar wind parameters from a late arriving
glancing blow CME associated with the 22/0649 UT M1.2 class flare.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 26-27Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Globally, conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
unusually depressed. Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-50%
below long term predicted monthly values. Propagation conditions
are expected to trend back towards monthly predicted values over
the next week.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Aug 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 22
August and is current for 23-25 Aug. IPS HF Communications Warning
40 was issued on 24 August and is current for 24-26 Aug. Moderately
depressed ionospheric support observed across all regions for
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days with MUF's trending towards a return to near predicted
monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 533 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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