[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 24 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Probable
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT
day, 23 Aug. Active Region 2403 produced few C-class solar flares.
The largest flare was a short-lived C6.6 event peaking at 23/0714
UT. Another less intense (C2.2) but long duration flare occurred
from 2044 UT to 2105 UT. No SOHO LASCO coronagrams images were
available at the time of writing to check if there was any earth-directed
CME launched associated with C2.2. Since Region 2403 continues
to demonstrate high flare potential and is reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk, the 2-day outlook is for moderate
solar activity with chance of M class and small chance of X class
flare. An earlier M1.2 class flare produced by Region 2403 at
22/0649 UT that was associated with a very faint halo coronal
mass ejection (CME) is expected to arrive at the Earth on the
UT day 24 Aug. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind increased
from 400 to 600 km/s, with an abrupt jump observed between 07
and 09 UT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -12/+2
nT and Bt reached values of 18 nT over the last 24 hours. The
high solar wind speeds are due to the Coronal Hole 684 that has
rotated into geoeffective locations. The solar winds are expected
to remain strong over the next 24 hours. The possible arrival
of the CME associated with the 22/0649 UT M1.2 class flare will
further increase the solar wind speeds to unsettled levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 12443222
Cocos Island 10 12433221
Darwin 11 22433212
Townsville 11 22433222
Learmonth 13 22344222
Alice Springs 10 13333222
Norfolk Island 12 12533121
Culgoora 12 12443222
Gingin 12 22343232
Canberra 12 12443221
Launceston 20 13554222
Hobart 17 13544222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 37 13666422
Casey 18 24434333
Mawson 51 44564375
Davis 28 33354363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2122 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 20 Active
25 Aug 12 Unsettled
26 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Conditions reached moderate geomagnetic storms levels
during the last 24 hours (UT day 23 August). The Australia Dst-index
reached levels of -80 nT at 23/1100 UT. The disturbed conditions
are due the arrival of Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) and
subsequent high speed solar wind stream emanating from the coronal
hole (CH 684), combined with a predominantly negative Bz interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) of round -10 nT. The two day outlook is
geomagnetic conditions will be mostly unsettled and at times
could reach to minor storms levels. Minor storm levels on 24
and 25 Aug are due to the possible arrival of the CME associated
with the 22/0649 UT M1.2 class flare.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Globally, conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
unusually depressed. Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-50%
below long term predicted monthly values. Propagation conditions
are expected to trend back towards monthly predicted values during
the 4 week period approaching September equinox.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 50 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
25 Aug 40 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Aug 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 22
August and is current for 23-25 Aug. Conditions for HF radio
wave propagation were moderately depressed throughout the Australian
region during 23 August. The conditions are expected to be depressed
again today, 24 Aug. The conditions are expected to slowly trend
back towards monthly predicted values during the 4 week period
approaching the September equinox.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 57300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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