[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 15 issued 2352 UT on 28 Aug 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 29 09:52:04 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.2    1316UT  possible   lower  European
  M2.1    1903UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Aug             30 Aug             31 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Very low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
region 2403 (S16W69) the source of two M-class events, a M2.2 
at 1316UT and M2.1 at 1903UT as well as numerous C-class events. 
Region 2403 has reduced in size over the last 24 hours and its 
magnetic complexity has simplified, though it still has the potential 
for further M-class events and possible X-class. Solar wind speed 
was ~350km/s between 00UT and 15UT after which it has gradually 
increased to be ~450km/s at the time of this report. The increase 
in solar wind speed is most likely from the negative polarity 
equatorial positioned coronal hole. Bz has continued with long 
sustained southward periods between 00UT-17UT, with maximum southward 
values ranging from -5nT to -16nT consistent with a slow moving 
CME most likely from flare and filament eruptions earlier this 
week. From 17UT onwards the total IMF (Btotal) has fallen in 
magnitude from 15nT to 10nT of which Bz is fluctuating between 
+/-8nT at the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected 
to be elevated over the next 24 hours due to a coronal hole high 
speed solar wind stream. Solar activity is expected to be Low 
to Moderate over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      21   42234543
      Cocos Island        16   42124442
      Darwin              19   32134543
      Townsville          25   43235543
      Learmonth           23   42135453
      Alice Springs       22   32135543
      Norfolk Island      14   32224432
      Culgoora            21   43234533
      Camden              21   43234533
      Gingin              26   52234553
      Canberra            13   32223433
      Melbourne           23   43334543
      Launceston          26   43344544
      Hobart              25   43344543    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    54   44555763
      Casey               18   53223334
      Mawson              50   74444546
      Davis               17   53223333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        8   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        33
           Planetary             48                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             51   4755 4546     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Aug    30    Active to Minor Storm
30 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
31 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed over the last 
24 hours due to sustained southward Bz. Active conditions are 
expected for the next 24 hours with possible Minor Storm periods 
due to coronal hole effects. Unsettled to Active conditions for 
30Aug and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 31Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio maximum usable frequencies are unusually depressed. 
Regional foF2 values are generally 20%-50% below long term predicted 
monthly values. Increased geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours and predicted for the next 2 days are expected 
delay ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Aug    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Aug    15    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
30 Aug    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
31 Aug    25    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 27 August 
and is current for 27-29 Aug. Depressed ionospheric support observed 
across all AUS/NZ regions for the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days due to increased geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    9.9 p/cc  Temp:    24800 K  Bz:  -9 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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