[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 15 issued 2352 UT on 28 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 29 09:52:04 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1316UT possible lower European
M2.1 1903UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Probable
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
region 2403 (S16W69) the source of two M-class events, a M2.2
at 1316UT and M2.1 at 1903UT as well as numerous C-class events.
Region 2403 has reduced in size over the last 24 hours and its
magnetic complexity has simplified, though it still has the potential
for further M-class events and possible X-class. Solar wind speed
was ~350km/s between 00UT and 15UT after which it has gradually
increased to be ~450km/s at the time of this report. The increase
in solar wind speed is most likely from the negative polarity
equatorial positioned coronal hole. Bz has continued with long
sustained southward periods between 00UT-17UT, with maximum southward
values ranging from -5nT to -16nT consistent with a slow moving
CME most likely from flare and filament eruptions earlier this
week. From 17UT onwards the total IMF (Btotal) has fallen in
magnitude from 15nT to 10nT of which Bz is fluctuating between
+/-8nT at the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected
to be elevated over the next 24 hours due to a coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream. Solar activity is expected to be Low
to Moderate over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 21 42234543
Cocos Island 16 42124442
Darwin 19 32134543
Townsville 25 43235543
Learmonth 23 42135453
Alice Springs 22 32135543
Norfolk Island 14 32224432
Culgoora 21 43234533
Camden 21 43234533
Gingin 26 52234553
Canberra 13 32223433
Melbourne 23 43334543
Launceston 26 43344544
Hobart 25 43344543
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 54 44555763
Casey 18 53223334
Mawson 50 74444546
Davis 17 53223333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 48
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 51 4755 4546
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 30 Active to Minor Storm
30 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed over the last
24 hours due to sustained southward Bz. Active conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours with possible Minor Storm periods
due to coronal hole effects. Unsettled to Active conditions for
30Aug and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 31Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio maximum usable frequencies are unusually depressed.
Regional foF2 values are generally 20%-50% below long term predicted
monthly values. Increased geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours and predicted for the next 2 days are expected
delay ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 15 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
30 Aug 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
31 Aug 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 27 August
and is current for 27-29 Aug. Depressed ionospheric support observed
across all AUS/NZ regions for the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 days due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 24800 K Bz: -9 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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