[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 15 issued 2331 UT on 18 Aug 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 19 09:31:22 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Aug             20 Aug             21 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low for the UT day, 18 
August. There were two isolated B class flares from Region 2403. 
The 2-day outlook is for very low activity with the chance of 
a weak C class flare. As was mostly anticipated, the CME associated 
with Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) launched on 14 August 
did not affect earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 
available LASCO coronagraph imagery for the UT day, 18 August. 
The solar wind has gradually declined from 550 to 400 km/s over 
the last 24 hours, current solar wind speed is ~400 km/s. During 
this period, the Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5/+5 
nT and Bt ranged between 4-7 nT. Expect the solar wind to elevate 
over the next 1-2 days due a large Coronal Hole (CH 683) taking 
a geoeffective position on the solar disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23211201
      Cocos Island         3   22121100
      Darwin               5   23211201
      Townsville           6   23211211
      Learmonth            7   33211301
      Alice Springs        5   23211201
      Norfolk Island       4   23200101
      Culgoora             5   23211201
      Gingin               5   22211211
      Canberra             4   23201200
      Launceston           7   33211211
      Hobart               5   23211201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   22220200
      Casey               10   34321211
      Mawson              21   54432234
      Davis               15   23432234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             31   4554 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Aug    12    Unsettled
20 Aug    12    Unsettled
21 Aug    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled on 18 
August. This was a final burst of activity associated with the 
tail end of the CME which arrived at Earth on 15 August. The 
three day outlook is geomagnetic conditions are mostly unsettled 
and possibly reaching minor storm levels in the high latitude 
regions. This is associated with a Co-rotating Interaction Region 
(CIR) preceding a high speed solar wind stream emanating from 
the large coronal hole (CH 683).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during 18 August. The conditions are expected to remain depressed 
in both hemispheres during 19 August. They will recover towards 
mildly depressed conditions later in the week.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Aug    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Aug    35    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
20 Aug    40    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Aug    45    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
throughout the Australian region during 18 August. Similar HF 
conditions are expected for 19 and 20 Aug. These depressions 
(18 to 20 August) are the after-effects of the geomagnetic storm 
which commenced on 15 August and continuos low levels of ionising 
solar flux. The HF conditions are expected to slowly trend back 
towards mildly depressed conditions relative to the long-term 
monthly prediction of T=80.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 557 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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