[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 17 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 18 09:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 17 Aug UT.
There were isolated B class flares. The 2-day outlook is for
very low activity with the chance of a weak C class flare. A
slow CME associated with Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) launched
on 14 Aug may glance the Earth later today, 18 Aug. The solar
wind speed fluctuated in the approximate range 500 to 600 km/s
during 17 Aug and is currently about 540 km/s. The 4-day outlook
is for elevated solar wind speed. Coronal Hole 683 (CH 683) is
traversing the central meridian in the Northern Hemisphere. A
Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) preceding a high speed solar
wind stream may impact Earth about 21 Aug. The magnitude of the
IMF has declined to about 5 nT at the time of this report. There
was a sustained interval of weak Bz southward conditions during
about 03 to 12 UT on 17 Aug. The Bz component is presently
fluctuating near 0 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 16 23444322
Cocos Island 10 22333321
Darwin 12 23333322
Townsville 19 34444322
Learmonth 24 23445532
Alice Springs 15 23344322
Norfolk Island 14 23443321
Culgoora 18 24444322
Gingin 19 23444432
Canberra 13 23343321
Launceston 29 24555433
Hobart 23 23554422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 68 35777522
Casey 14 33334322
Mawson 59 46654475
Davis 38 33553373
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 39 6563 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (Kp=5)
briefly during 12 to 15 UT on 17 Aug. This minor storm was associated
with strong solar wind speed and weak Bz southward conditions
(about -5 nT) occurring during 03 to 12 UT. This was a final
burst of activity associated with the tail end of the CME which
arrived at Earth on 15 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to decline initially during 18 Aug UT. Conditions will reach
active levels (Kp=4) if a CME associated with a DSF launched
on 14 Aug glances the Earth. Another episode of active conditions
is likely later this week due to the arrival of a high speed
solar wind stream emanating from CH 683.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during 17 August. The conditions are expected to remain depressed
in both hemispheres during 18 August. They will recover towards
mildly depressed conditions later in the week.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 35 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
19 Aug 45 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
20 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
throughout the Australian region during 17 August. The conditions
were more depressed for the mid-latitude stations than the low
latitude stations. For example, the daily T index was 56 for
Cocos Island and 20 for Norfolk Island. The conditions are expected
to be even more depressed during 18 Aug. These depressions (16
to 18 August) are the after-effects of the CME which arrived
at Earth on 15 August. The conditions are expected to slowly
trend back towards mildly depressed conditions relative to the
long-term monthly prediction of T=80.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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