[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 15 issued 2342 UT on 16 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 17 09:42:56 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 16 August, with
no C-class flares reported. Expect solar activity to remain Very
Low over the next three days. The solar wind increased from 480
km/s to 580 km/s during the last 24 hrs, current solar wind speed
is ~580 km/s. During this period, the Bz component of IMF varied
between -10/+10 nT and Bt ranged from 10 - 15 nT. This increased
solar wind is due to the effect of the partial halo CME that
reached Earth at 15/0829 UT. Expect the solar wind to remain
near 500km/s over the next 24 hours (17 August) as the effects
of the CME dissipates.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Unsettled to
Major Storm levels at times
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 18 33533332
Cocos Island 11 32422322
Darwin 15 33433332
Townsville 21 4353333-
Learmonth 22 43533433
Alice Springs 19 33533333
Norfolk Island 15 33532222
Culgoora 18 33533332
Gingin 22 42533443
Canberra 16 33532322
Launceston 24 33643333
Hobart 23 33643332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 37 34655533
Casey 21 43432353
Mawson 60 65743565
Davis 41 64443564
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 40 3236 7534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 12 Unsettled
18 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Unsettled to isolated
periods of Major Storm levels over the Australian region for
the UT day, 16 Aug. This is due to the effect of the partial
halo CME that reached Earth at 15/0829 UT and Bz remaining southward
(negative) for a prolong period of nearly 6 hours (02-08 UT on
15 Aug). Unsettled conditions are expected in the Australian
region for 17 and 18 August with possible periods of Active levels
at higher latitudes. Expect a return to Quiet to Unsettled on
19 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 45 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
18 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were degraded, with depression up to 40% due to
the ionospheric storm effects. Expect moderate depressions over
the next 24 hours (17 August) due ionospheric storm in progress.
Expect continued depressed MUFs 18-19 August due to low EUV resulting
from low sunspot numbers for this period in the solar cycle.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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