[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 16 09:30:47 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for UT day, 15 August. The strongest
X-ray flare was a C1.6 class flare at 1236UT from active region
2401. Expect solar activity to remain Low over the next three
days. The partial halo CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 14:48
UT on 12 August associated with the long duration B7.0 flare
and the filament eruption from the southwest quadrant of the
solar disc arrived at Earth earlier then predicted, reaching
Earth at 0829 UT. ACE observed a moderate shock in the solar
wind at 15/0744UT with a jump in the solar wind from 350 to 450
km/s. The solar wind has increased from 350 to 500 km/s over
the last 24 hours. During this period, the Bz component of IMF
dipped to -21nT at 1008UT. Expect the solar wind to remain near
500km/s over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 23 22455432
Cocos Island 19 12454431
Darwin 22 22455422
Townsville 24 32455432
Learmonth 28 22555532
Alice Springs 23 22455432
Norfolk Island 21 22455332
Culgoora 23 22455432
Gingin 22 22355433
Canberra 17 12445322
Launceston 28 22456433
Hobart 23 22455432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 47 11377533
Casey 20 34543322
Mawson 40 53455446
Davis 23 33553432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 20 Active
17 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 14 August and
is current for 16 Aug only. Geomagnetic activity ranged from
Quiet to Minor Storm levels for the Australian region with Isolated
Major Storm levels in the Antarctic region. The IPS magnetometer
data for 15 August detected a weak (19nT) impulse observed at
0829UT due to the early arrival of anticipated CME resulting
in the Minor Storm activity. Unsettled to Active conditions are
expected in the Australian region for 16 August with possible
periods of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes. Expect a return
to Quiet to Unsettled on 17-18 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 40 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
17 Aug 60 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 60 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 15 August
and is current for 16 Aug only. MUFs have ranged between predicted
monthly values and moderate depressions. Expect moderate depressions
today, 16 August, due to the geomagnetic storm currently in progress.
Expect continued depressed MUFs 17-18 August due to low EUV resulting
from low sunspot numbers for this period in the solar cycle.
Noted sporadic E at the Cocos Island station between 16-22UT.
Noted spread F at Perth (14-19 UT) and Hobart (11-20 UT).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 35100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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