[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 15 issued 2346 UT on 19 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 20 09:46:45 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low for the UT day, 19
August. There were few B class flares mostly from active Region
2403. This region has recently rotated into view on the southeast
limb of the solar disk. The 2-day outlook is for very low activity
with the chance of a weak C class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed on available LASCO coronagraph imagery for the
UT day, 19 August. The solar wind has gradually increased from
400 to 550 km/s over the last 24 hours due to high solar wind
speeds emanating from the Coronal Hole (CH683) . During this
period, the Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -10/+7 nT
and Bt ranged between 5-10 nT, peaking at 13 UT. Expect the solar
wind to remain strong over the next 2 days (20-21 August) and
then gradually decline as the Coronal Hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Mostly Unsettled
and at times Active
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 32334321
Cocos Island 8 22223311
Darwin 11 22234321
Townsville 13 32334322
Learmonth 17 32335422
Alice Springs 12 32234321
Norfolk Island 9 32323310
Culgoora 12 32324321
Gingin 14 32224432
Canberra 7 22223310
Launceston 14 33334321
Hobart 13 32334321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 24 23446421
Casey 12 33233322
Mawson 52 65544466
Davis 32 63433355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3322 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Aug 12 Unsettled
22 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 19 August and
is current for 19-20 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
unsettled and at times active during the last 24 hours (UT day
19 August). The Australia Dst-index reached levels of -54 nT
at ~0610 UT. The disturbed conditions over the last 24 hours
is the combined effect of the Co-rotating Interaction Region
(CIR) and subsequent high speed solar wind stream emanating from
the large coronal hole (CH 683), and as well as Bz remaining
negative (southwards) for prolonged periods on the UT day. The
two day outlook is geomagnetic conditions will be mostly unsettled
as the coronal hole effects wane. However, there could be minor
storms in the higher latitude regions since the solar winds are
expected remain strong over the next 2 days and provided if Bz
is strongly negative for prolonged periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during 19 August. The conditions are expected to remain depressed
in both hemispheres during 20 August. They will recover towards
mildly depressed conditions later in the week.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 45 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Aug 45 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Aug 50 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 19 August
and is current for 19-21 Aug. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation
were depressed throughout the Australian region during 19 August.
Similar HF conditions are expected for 20 and 21 Aug. These depressions
are the after-effects of the geomagnetic storm which commenced
on 15 August and continuos low levels of ionising solar flux.
The HF conditions are expected to slowly trend back towards mildly
depressed conditions relative to the long-term monthly prediction
of T=80.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 91700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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