[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 12 09:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for UT day, 11 August, due to
a C1 class from active region 2396 at 1515UT. Expect solar activity
to be Very Low to Low for the next two days (12-13 August). The
solar wind ranged from 370 km/s to nearly 480 km/s during the
last 24 hrs, current solar wind speed is ~400 km/s. During this
period, the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT. Expect
similar conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22222001
Cocos Island 3 21221001
Darwin 4 22221002
Townsville 5 22222011
Learmonth 5 22222012
Alice Springs 4 22221002
Norfolk Island 4 22221001
Culgoora 4 12222001
Gingin 5 22122112
Camden 4 22222001
Canberra 2 11112000
Launceston 5 22232001
Hobart 3 12222000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 12234000
Casey 8 23322122
Mawson 25 54332226
Davis 63 43343219
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 3443 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 4 Quiet
13 Aug 4 Quiet
14 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly Quiet for the Australian
region with some Unsettled periods at high latitudes. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected for the 12 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 50 Depressed 10-30%/near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 50 Depressed 10-30%/near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 50 Depressed 10-30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 10 August
and is current for 10-12 Aug. MUFs have ranged between predicted
monthly values and mild depressions. Expect this trend to prevail
over the next three days due to low EUV resulting from low sunspot
numbers for this period in the solar cycle.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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