[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 15 issued 2339 UT on 12 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 13 09:39:57 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 12 August. Expect
solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next two days (13-14
August). During the last 24 hrs, observed two CMEs in LASCO C2
imagery, but they do not appear to be geoeffective. The first
CME was associated with an eruptive prominence on the southwest
limb observed in H-alpha starting at 0121 UT. The second CME
was associated with an erupting solar filament in the southwest
quadrant observed in H-alpha starting at 1332UT. The solar wind
ranged from 380 km/s to nearly 450 km/s during the last 24 hrs,
current solar wind speed is ~420 km/s. During this period, the
Bz component of IMF varied between +/-8 nT. Expect similar conditions
to prevail over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 12212222
Cocos Island 5 22112212
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 7 12212322
Alice Springs 5 12202212
Norfolk Island 5 12202212
Culgoora 5 22202212
Gingin 7 12212322
Camden 6 22212212
Canberra 4 12201212
Launceston 8 22212323
Hobart 5 02220231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 11202322
Casey 10 33321322
Mawson 28 54322346
Davis 20 23322336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3222 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly Quiet for the Australian
region with some Unsettled periods at high latitudes. Mostly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 13-14 August.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Unsettled levels
in the Australian region with possible periods of Active levels
at higher latitudes on 15 August due to a small coronal hole
approaching a geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 50 Depressed 10-30%/near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 50 Depressed 10-30%/near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 50 Depressed 10-30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have ranged between predicted monthly values and
mild depressions. Expect this trend to prevail over the next
three days due to low EUV resulting from low sunspot numbers
for this period in the solar cycle.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 74700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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