[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 11 09:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 10 August. Expect
solar activity to be Low for the next three days. C-class flares
are likely to occur from active region 2396 with a slight to
moderate chance for an M-class flare. The solar wind decreased
from 580 km/s to nearly 400 km/s during the last 24 hrs, current
solar wind speed is ~430 km/s. During this period, the Bz component
of IMF varied between +4/-5 nT. Expect a gradual decline in solar
wind over the next three days to around 300 km/s. No earth-directed
CMEs were observed for the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22222121
Cocos Island 3 11112120
Darwin 5 22112121
Townsville 7 22223121
Learmonth 7 22223121
Alice Springs 5 12113021
Norfolk Island 4 12212011
Culgoora 5 22222111
Gingin 6 12223121
Camden 6 22222121
Canberra 2 11112010
Launceston 8 22323121
Hobart 5 11222220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 13343110
Casey 8 32223121
Mawson 17 34443232
Davis 16 23443142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2333 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 6 Quiet
12 Aug 4 Quiet
13 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly Quiet for the Australian
region with some Active periods at high latitudes. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for 11 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Slight chance for a Short Wave Fade.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 55 Depressed 10-30%/near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 55 Depressed 10-30%/near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 55 Depressed 10-30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 10
August and is current for 10-11 Aug. IPS HF Communications Warning
32 was issued on 10 August and is current for 10-12 Aug. MUFs
have ranged between predicted monthly values and mild depressions.
Expect this trend to prevail over the next three days due to
low EUV resulting from low sunspot numbers for this period in
the solar cycle.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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