[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 24 09:30:53 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1007UT  Observed   lower  African and European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Apr             25 Apr             26 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours. 
Several C-class and one M1.1 flares were observed. The M1 flare 
peaked at 1007 UT and came from region 2322 that has gone behind 
the limb. A partial halo CME was observed in association with 
this flare but it is not expected to have any earthward directed 
component. As anticipated, the coronal hole effect has shown 
further weakening. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease 
from around 500 to 400 km/s during the UT day today whereas the 
Bz component of IMF stayed within +/-4nT for most parts of the 
day. The effect of the coronal hole is expected to show further 
gradual weakening over the next 24 hours. There are currently 
8 numbered sunspot regions on the earth facing side of the solar 
disk. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 
three days with some possibility of isolated M-class event. ACE 
EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
23/2145UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   13110001
      Cocos Island         2   12110000
      Darwin               3   23110001
      Townsville           4   23110011
      Learmonth            4   23111001
      Alice Springs        3   13110001
      Norfolk Island       2   13000001
      Culgoora             3   13110001
      Gingin               2   12110001
      Camden               3   13110001
      Canberra             2   03100001
      Launceston           3   13110001
      Hobart               3   13110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   12010000
      Casey               10   44321101
      Mawson              16   35331114
      Davis               10   33432001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2233 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Apr     6    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr     4    Quiet
26 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels today with isolated active periods on some high latitude 
locations. The activity is expected to gradually decline to unsettled 
and then to quiet levels through the UT day 24 April and stay 
mostly at quiet levels for the following two days thereafter 
as the coronal hole induced solar wind stream is expected to 
further weaken over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with 
periods of minor to significant MUF enhancements at some low 
latitude locations. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly 
normal during the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Apr   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with 
periods of minor to significant MUF enhancements in northern 
Aus/NZ regions. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal 
during the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 535 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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