[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 23 09:30:36 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 22/0844UT possible lower South African
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
Several C-class and one M1.1 flares were observed. The M1 flare
peaked at 0844 UT and came from region 2322 that just passed
the limb. No earth directed CME was observed during this period.
As anticipated, the coronal hole effect has started weakening.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from around 580
to 500 km/s during the UT day today whereas the Bz component
of IMF stayed within +/-5nT for most parts of the day. The effect
of the coronal hole is expected to show further gradual weakening
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Low levels of solar activity may
be expected for the next three days with some possibility of
isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled.
Isolated active periods on high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22332212
Cocos Island 5 22221111
Darwin 7 22322112
Townsville 9 22332222
Learmonth 9 32232222
Alice Springs 8 22332212
Norfolk Island 6 22321111
Culgoora 9 22332222
Gingin 8 21233212
Camden 8 22332212
Canberra 7 22322112
Launceston 10 22333222
Hobart 9 22333212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 14 21444311
Casey 13 44332221
Mawson 30 33553236
Davis 15 33443222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20 4333 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled, isolated active periods possible
24 Apr 6 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels today with isolated active periods on some high latitude
locations. The activity is expected to gradually decline to unsettled
and then to quiet levels over the next two days and stay at quiet
levels on the third day as the coronal hole induced solar wind
stream is expected to weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours. Isolated
active periods may still be observed on high latitudes on 23
April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements in low latitude
regions. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during
the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements in northern Aus/NZ
regions. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 561 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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