[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 22 09:30:04 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0721UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.2 1042UT possible lower European
M2.2 1157UT possible lower European
M4.0 1545UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.0 1701UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.8 2145UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2202UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours with
M-class flares observed during this period, the largest being
an M4 flare at 1545UT from region 2322(N11W87). Most of the other
M-flares also came from region 2322 which is now disappearing
on the limb. No earth directed CME was observed during this period.
Due to the anticipated coronal hole effect, the solar wind speed
showed a gradual increase from 470to 600 km/s during the UT day
today whereas the Bz component of IMF stayed within +/-6nT for
most parts of the day. The effect of a coronal hole is expected
to keep the solar wind stream strong for the next 2 days. Low
levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three days
with some possibility of isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Mostly Quiet
to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 16 33344322
Cocos Island 10 23333212
Darwin 12 33333312
Townsville 16 33344322
Learmonth 15 33343323
Alice Springs 14 33334322
Norfolk Island 10 23233222
Culgoora 16 33344322
Gingin 17 33344323
Camden 16 33344322
Canberra 16 33344322
Launceston 19 33354323
Hobart 16 33344322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
Macquarie Island 32 24465532
Casey 18 44433323
Mawson 47 34544367
Davis 29 34543236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 66 (Active)
Canberra 68 (Active)
Melbourne 85 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3302 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 18 Unsettled to Active, isolated minor storm periods
possible
23 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
24 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to active
levels today, with isolated periods of minor storm recorded on
some high latitude locations. The activity is expected to remain
enhanced to Active levels with some possibility of isolated minor
storm periods on 22 April. Due to an expected weakening in the
coronal hole effect, activity may be expected to gradually decline
to unsettled and then quiet levels through 23 and 24 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 21 April
with periods of minor MUF enhancements in mid latitude regions.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from 22 to
23 April, especially on the high an some mid latitude locations.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 24 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
23 Apr 105 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 21 April
with periods of minor MUF enhancements in Aus/NZ regions. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from 22 to 23 April.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 24 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 58500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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