[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 25 09:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Several 
C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C2.1 event 
at 0843 UT from region 2326(N19W96). As anticipated, the coronal 
hole effect now seems to have diminished. The solar wind speed 
stayed between 360 and 400 km/s for most parts of the UT day 
today, showing a slow decline over the day. The Bz component 
of IMF stayed close to the normal value today. There are currently 
6 numbered sunspot regions on the earth facing side of the solar 
disk. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 
three days with some possibility of isolated M-class event.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Mostly quiet, 
isolated unsettled periods on high latitudes

Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22011000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               2   22100001
      Townsville           2   22011001
      Learmonth            1   22000000
      Alice Springs        1   22000000
      Norfolk Island       1   11010000
      Culgoora             2   12011000
      Gingin               2   21011000
      Camden               2   22011000
      Canberra             2   22011000
      Launceston           3   22021000
      Hobart               2   21021000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   11020000
      Casey                5   33210100
      Mawson              11   35201222
      Davis                8   24210123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1311 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr     4    Quiet
26 Apr     4    Quiet
27 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels today 
with isolated unsettled periods on high latitudes. Mostly quiet 
conditions may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%
26 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%
27 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today in Aus/NZ 
regions. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during 
the next three days in this region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    85300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list