[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 15 issued 2344 UT on 09 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 10 09:44:41 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 09 Apr with numerous
C-class flares from AR 2320 (S12W25). The largest flare was a
C6 X-ray flare at 1901UT. Large gaps in SOHO LASCO coronagraph
images limit our ability to determine the impacts of ejecta from
AR 2230 at the time of this report but available SOHO LASCO images
show no clear evidence for Earthward directed CMEs. AR 2230 is
in decline but it still has a Beta-Gamma configuration and may
produce more strong C class flares with a slight chance of an
isolated M-class event. ACE solar wind conditions indicate a
weak shock early UT day around 0100UT and a second one ~0900UT
with an enhancement in speed (but still light ~400Km/s). This
may have been caused by the glancing blow of earlier CMEs. The
IMF Bz component briefly reached -9 nT at ~0930 UT, but has otherwise
been fluctuating mostly in the range -5 nT to +8 nT until ~2200UT
when it turned southward to a minimum of -10 nT and has remained
southward since. Further wind speeds and magnetic field strength
is expected for the next 24 hours and remain elevated today and
tomorrow.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 32232222
Cocos Island 6 22221222
Darwin 9 32232222
Townsville 10 33232222
Learmonth 12 32232333
Alice Springs 8 22232222
Norfolk Island 7 22232212
Culgoora 10 33-32222
Gingin 9 32222232
Camden 9 23232222
Canberra 7 22222222
Launceston 11 33232223
Hobart 8 23222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 23233111
Casey 14 44332222
Mawson 13 33332233
Davis 13 33342232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of isolated Minor
Storm levels.
11 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled.
12 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 April and
is current for 9-10 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to
Unsettled for the UT day, 09 April. Isolated cases of Active
to Minor Storm levels observed in the Antarctic region. Unsettled
to Active with a chance of isolated Minor Storm levels are possible
today, 10 April. Expect mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
on 11 April and a return to mostly Quiet conditions on 12 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
11 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
12 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly depressed
today. The ionosphere may be slightly to moderately disturbed
today and tomorrow due to weak geomagnetic storm possibly causing
minor disruption in HF communication particularly at higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 41700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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