[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 15 issued 2338 UT on 10 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 11 09:38:16 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 10 Apr with numerous
C-class flares from AR 2320 (S13W39). The largest flare was a
C7 X-ray flare at 0803UT. Available SOHO LASCO images show no
clear evidence for Earthward directed CMEs. AR 2230 has a Beta-Delta
configuration and may produce more strong C class flares with
a chance of an isolated M-class event. Solar wind speed increased
further from 360 Km/s to ~490 km/s early UT day (00-02UT)then
gradually decreased and is currently ~375 km/s. The IMF Bz component
has been negative during the previous 10 hours. Wind speeds and
magnetic field strength are likely to persist over the next 24
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 20 44444322
Cocos Island 18 44434321
Darwin 18 44434321
Townsville 20 44444322
Learmonth 25 53445422
Alice Springs 21 43445321
Norfolk Island 20 44534212
Culgoora 20 44444322
Gingin 17 43434321
Camden 23 44544322
Canberra 21 44534321
Launceston 25 45544322
Hobart 28 3456-322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 28 34643522
Casey 23 34643222
Mawson 55 47544366
Davis 28 34554244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2322 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 18 Quiet to Active
12 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active with cases
of Minor Storm levels for the UT Day, 10 April. Major Storm levels
observed in the Antarctic region. Magnetic conditions are expected
to be Quiet to Active today with a chance of isolated Minor Storm
levels , 11 April, mostly Quiet to Unsettled on 12 April and
a return to mostly Quiet on 13 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly depressed
particularly at higher latitudes. There is the chance of short-wave
fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 45300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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