[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 9 09:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1443UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during April 08. AR 2230(S12E02)produced
a short live M1.4 Xray flare at 1443UT. Large gaps in SOHO LASCO
coronagraph images (and the absence of STEREO coronagraph images)
limit our ability to determine the impacts of ejecta from AR
2230 at the time of this report. AR 2230 has a Beta-Gamma-Delta
configuration and may be the source of further M class flares
over the forecast period. The solar wind speed is about 350km/s
at the time of this report. The IMF Bz component has been fluctuating
mostly in the +/-4nT range. Solar wind speeds are expected to
increase from late today, 09 April due to the impact of CMEs
and the arrival of fast wind emanating from a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11000111
Cocos Island 2 11000210
Darwin 1 10000201
Townsville 1 10000111
Learmonth 2 10000211
Alice Springs 0 00000101
Norfolk Island 1 12000001
Culgoora 2 11000112
Gingin 1 10000111
Camden 1 11000111
Canberra 0 00000100
Launceston 1 11000111
Hobart 1 11000101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23110222
Mawson 12 41000153
Davis 7 22100242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 0
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of isolated Minor
Storm levels.
10 Apr 20 Quiet to Active.
11 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the UT day, 08
April. Isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm levels observed
in the Antarctic region. Conditions are expected to be mostly
Quiet for the first part of 09 April. Unsettled to Active with
a chance of isolated Minor Storm levels are possible from the
second half of April 9 into April 10. This anticipated increase
in activity is due to CME effects combined with a coronal hole
wind stream. Geomagnetic activity should return to mostly Unsettled
to Quiet levels for 11 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
10 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
11 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere may be slightly disturbed on 09-11 April
due to an anticipated magnetic storm possibly causing minor disruption
in HF communication particularly at higher latitudes. There is
the chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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