[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 15 issued 2335 UT on 07 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 8 09:35:21 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during 07 Apr. Region 2230(S13E03),
remains the most significant region on the disk and continues
to grow. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels
with a slight chance for an M-class flare from region 2230 for
the next few days. The solar wind speed continued trending downward
and is presently about 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component was weakly
negative (about -2 nT) until 03UT on 07Apr, and has subsequently
turned positive. The ENLIL solar wind model predicts two weak
CMEs will glance the Earth late on 9 Apr or early 10 Apr. A coronal
hole high speed wind stream is expected to arrive at Earth on
10 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11001001
Townsville 2 22101001
Learmonth 2 22000001
Alice Springs 1 12000000
Norfolk Island 1 1100001-
Culgoora 1 11001010
Gingin 1 21000001
Camden 1 21000001
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 2 22000010
Hobart 1 12000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 7 34211010
Mawson 7 33211030
Davis 7 241110--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 5 2211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 20 Unsettled to Active.
10 Apr 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the UT day, 07
April. Isolated cases of Active levels observed in the Antarctic
region. Conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet for today,
08 April. However on 09-10 April expect the geomagnetic conditions
to increase to Unsettled to Active levels with a chance of isolated
Minor Storms.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
10 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next 24
hours. Some depressions at high and possibly mid latitudes may
be observed on 09-10 April due to expected geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 70900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list