[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 15 issued 2334 UT on 06 Apr 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 7 09:34:49 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels. The greatest flare 
was a C3 flare at 1906UT from Region 2320(S12E16). This region 
remains the most significant region on the disk and continues 
to grow. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels 
with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next few days. 
No CMEs of significance have been observed in available satellite 
imagery. The solar wind speed declined from ~600 km/s to ~450 
km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speed 
is expected to continue declining, though late on today, April 
7 or early on April 8, there may be a glancing blow from the 
CME of April 5.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21201001
      Cocos Island         2   21201000
      Darwin               2   11201001
      Townsville           4   22211101
      Learmonth            2   21201100
      Alice Springs        2   11201000
      Norfolk Island       2   21100002
      Culgoora             3   21211101
      Gingin               3   21201101
      Camden               4   22211101
      Canberra             2   21200000
      Launceston           4   22211011
      Hobart               2   21201001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   21001001
      Casey               11   34422011
      Mawson              14   34311234
      Davis                9   233221--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   2211 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    12    Quiet with a chance of Unsettled and isolated 
                cases of Active levels.
08 Apr    12    Quiet with a chance of Unsettled and isolated 
                cases of Active levels.
09 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the UT day, 06 
April. Conditions may increase to Unsettled with isolated cases 
of Active levels late on today, 07 April if the shock from the 
05 April CME glances the Earth's magnetosphere, otherwise mostly 
Quiet conditions for 07-09 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during UT day.
      Depressed by 25% 17-20UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are 
expected to be around predicted monthly values for the next 3 
days. The ionosphere may be slightly disturbed particularly at 
higher latitudes 08-09 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 540 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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