[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 6 09:30:35 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 05 April. The
largest flare for the period was a C3.8 flare at 05/0007UT which
was associated with a CME and erupting 23 degree filament in
the southeast quadrant of the Sun. The main body of the ejection
is expected to miss the Earth though there may be a glancing
blow from the shock front on 07 April. The solar wind speed was
strong for the UT day, 05 April, ranging from 600km to 500km
over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz component was mainly positive,
going negative periodically for short periods, the minimum over
the last 24 hours was -3nT. Solar flare activity is expected
to remain at Very Low to Low levels for the next three days.
The solar wind stream is expected to slowly decline to nominal
levels over the UT day, 06 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22201212
Cocos Island 2 12110010
Darwin 4 22201112
Townsville 5 22211212
Learmonth 4 22211111
Alice Springs 4 22201112
Norfolk Island 2 11100111
Culgoora 4 22101212
Gingin 4 22200221
Camden 5 22111212
Canberra 4 22101212
Launceston 7 23211222
Hobart 5 22201212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 12101101
Casey 13 35321212
Mawson 12 24412123
Davis 9 23422211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 67 (Active)
Canberra 74 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3212 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 5 Quiet
07 Apr 12 Unsettled
08 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet for the UT Day, 05 April.
Isolated cases of Active levels observed in the Antarctic region.
Magnetic conditions are expected to to be mostly Quiet for today,
06 April. The magnetic conditions may increase to Unsettled to
Active conditions on 07 April if the shock from the CME occurring
early on 05 April glances the Earth's magnetosphere, otherwise
expect mostly quiet conditions for 07-08 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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