[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 6 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with C class flare activity
mostly from region 2157(S14E58) the greatest being a C6. CMEs
were observed in association with two of these flares however
they are directed to the east and are unlikely to be geoeffective.
Solar wind conditions are nominal. A continued steady rise in
the low energy protons measured by the EPAM instrument on the
ACE satellite is suggestive that the edge of the CME resulting
from the filament eruption observed on the 2nd of September is
approaching and is still expected to arrive sometime in the next
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12221211
Cocos Island 3 1111121-
Darwin 6 12212222
Townsville 4 1212121-
Learmonth 6 22221222
Alice Springs 4 1221111-
Norfolk Island 4 21121111
Culgoora 4 12121111
Gingin 5 1222122-
Camden 3 11121111
Canberra 3 01121111
Launceston 7 12232221
Hobart 5 12221211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 7 1213222-
Casey 11 3432221-
Mawson 13 3332333-
Davis 10 23322322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2222 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
07 Sep 12 Unsettled
08 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A minor CME impact is expected in the next 24 hours
potentially causing Active conditions on arrival followed by
Unsettled to Active conditions for the following 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Useable HF communication frequencies were around predicted
monthly values over the previous day, with some variability in
northern and equatorial regions. Expect conditions mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next 3 days. Some depressed
periods are possible during local night on the 6th of September
and into the 7th due to possible geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 78400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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