[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 5 09:30:24 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with numerous C class 
flares occurring from several regions including 2152(S15W26) 
which has a Beta-Gamma magnetic complexity. Several new regions 
are rotating around the eastern limb and have also produced C 
class flares. No geoeffective CMEs were observed in association 
with these flares. Solar wind conditions remain nominal. Flare 
activity is expected to be Moderate for the next 3 days. A glancing 
blow from the filament eruption observed on the 2nd of September 
is expected sometime on the 6th of September.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22221001
      Cocos Island         2   21111000
      Darwin               4   22211012
      Townsville           4   22221011
      Learmonth            4   22221001
      Alice Springs        3   22211001
      Norfolk Island       3   22120011
      Culgoora             4   22221001
      Gingin               3   22221000
      Camden               4   22221001
      Canberra             2   11120000
      Launceston           5   22231011
      Hobart               4   12231001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     5   21241000
      Casey                9   33322112
      Mawson              23   54433125
      Davis               15   43532111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3432 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep     5    Quiet
06 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
07 Sep    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are Quiet. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next day. On the 6th of September a possible 
glancing blow from a CME may cause Unsettled to Active conditions 
followed by Unsettled conditions with a chance of Active periods 
on the 7th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      72
Sep      88
Oct      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Useable HF communication frequencies were around predicted 
monthly values over the previous day, with some variability in 
northern and equatorial regions. Expect conditions mostly near 
predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    63100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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