[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 4 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 1354UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels with an M2 flare
being produced by a region just rotating around the eastern limb.
Several C class flares were also produced by region 2149 which
is just rotating off the western limb. No new geoeffective CMEs
were observed. The filament eruption and associated CME observed
around 15UT yesterday has now been analysed and a glancing blow
is expected sometime on the 6th of September. Most of the material
was directed to the north of the ecliptic so geomagnetic impacts
are not expected to be significant. Solar wind conditions are
nominal. Further M class flare activity is expected over the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22221112
Cocos Island 3 22111101
Darwin 6 23221112
Townsville 6 22231112
Learmonth 5 22221111
Alice Springs 5 22220112
Norfolk Island 4 22220111
Culgoora 6 22231112
Gingin 5 22221112
Camden 7 22331112
Canberra 3 12220001
Launceston 7 22331111
Hobart 6 22331011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 11 12452100
Casey 10 33332112
Mawson 24 34423236
Davis 13 33432213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2332 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 5 Quiet
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are Quiet. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days. On the 6th of September a possible
glancing blow from a CME may cause Unsettled to Active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 88 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Useable HF communication frequencies were around predicted
monthly values over the previous day, with some variability.
Expect conditions mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 77100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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