[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 3 09:30:32 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Low Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels with C class flare
activity from region 2152(S16W11), the greatest at C3. Several
CMEs were observed directed towards the east. These most likely
originated from an active region just around the eastern limb.
None of the observed CMEs are likely to be geoeffective. A large
filament in the north-west quadrant lifted off at around 15UT.
At present there is very little coronagraph imagery available
to characterise the resulting CME. STEREO-B images suggest the
bulk of the material is directed north of the ecliptic which
is likely to mean any geomagnetic impacts will be minor, however
these images alone cannot rule out a moderate event. Updates
on this event will be given in the summary forecast throughout
the day once more data is available. The solar wind speed remains
at around 420 km/s with nominal IMF conditions. Flare activity
is expected to be Low on day one rising to Moderate on days 2
and 3 mostly due to the region rotating onto the eastern limb
which has been producing CMEs consistently over the last few
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 12223212
Cocos Island 4 2112120-
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 7 1222321-
Learmonth 8 22223222
Alice Springs 7 1222321-
Norfolk Island 5 12122211
Culgoora 7 12223222
Gingin 7 2222321-
Camden 7 1-223222
Canberra 4 11112212
Launceston 8 12223322
Hobart 7 12123222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 1222431-
Casey 14 4433221-
Mawson 18 4433333-
Davis 24 43432236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3333 3213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods. Conditions are expected to remain somewhat
unsettled for the next day or two under the influence of a moderately
fast solar wind stream before returning to Quiet. A disappearing
solar filament was observed that may have a geomagnetic impact
in the next 2-4 days, however satellite imagery for this event
is not yet sufficient to characterise the resulting CME clearly.
Once data is available, if significant geomagnetic impacts are
expected then a warning will be issued later today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 1 September
and is current for 1-3 Sep. MUF depressions of around 15% were
observed across much of Australia during local daytime. Night
time conditions were closer to the monthly predicted values.
These conditions can be expected to continue or improve somewhat
over the next day or two. IPS HF communications warning 14/45
had been issued and is in effect until the 3rd of September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 98600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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