[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 14 issued 2334 UT on 01 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 2 09:34:40 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels with at most C2
class X-ray flares produced by regions 2149(N09W78) and 2152(S16E02).
A significant partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery
just after 11UT however this has been determined to be a back
side event. A TypeII radio burst was seen the the Culgoora Solar
Radio Spectrograph between 2212 - 2219UT in association with
a C1 X-Ray flare. At time of writing no region has been associated
with this event and appropriate coronagraph imagery is not yet
available to determine if this has produced a CME of significance.
The solar wind speed remains elevated at between 400-450 km/s.
The IMF Bt is table at around 7nT with the Bz component oscillating
between north and south. Solar activity is expected to be Low
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22232221
Cocos Island 5 2222112-
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 8 2223222-
Learmonth 7 22222222
Alice Springs 8 2223222-
Norfolk Island 7 22232211
Culgoora 7 22232221
Gingin 9 2223223-
Camden 7 22232221
Canberra 6 12232211
Launceston 11 23243221
Hobart 8 22233221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 17 2234531-
Casey 13 4432222-
Mawson 20 5433332-
Davis 14 34433221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 2234 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods. Conditions are expected to remain somewhat
unsettled for the next day or two under the influence of a moderately
fast solar wind stream before returning to Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 1 September
and is current for 1-3 Sep. Mostly normal HF conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Depressed periods are expected over the
next few days due to decreasing levels of ionoising solar EUV
flux. IPS HF communications warning 14/45 had been issued and
is in effect until the 3rd of September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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