[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 7 09:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1709UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 158/112 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with an M1 class flare
produced by region 2157(S14E58) as well as several C class flares.
ACE solar wind measurements showed an enhancement in density
and total field strength from around 3UT followed by an increase
in velocity from around 15UT. This is most likely the glancing
blow that was expected from the CME observed on September 2nd.
The Bz component has been around -5nT over the last few hours.
A large CME, possibly followed by a second smaller one, was observed
in SOHO/LASCO after around 12UT directed towards the east. STEREO-A
images suggest this does not have an Earth directed component
but further analysis is required when more imagery is available
in tomorrow's report. Solar activity is expected to remain Moderate
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 13222322
Cocos Island 7 12222322
Darwin 10 23322322
Townsville 9 23222322
Learmonth 10 23222323
Alice Springs 9 13322322
Norfolk Island 7 22222311
Culgoora 8 13222322
Gingin 9 12311333
Camden 8 13222322
Canberra 4 12211211
Launceston 9 13322322
Hobart 7 13311221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 02210111
Casey 11 24411123
Mawson 18 33321226
Davis 11 13422223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 1223 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 12 Unsettled
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A minor CME impact has caused some Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions with Unsettled periods likely to be experienced for
the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Useable HF communication frequencies were around predicted
monthly values over the previous day. Expect conditions mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 43100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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