[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 19 10:30:30 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0758UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Moderate during Oct 18
with M-class activity from region 2192(S13E56). Region 2192 also
produced several C-class flares. There are currently 3 numbered
regions on the visible disk with region 2192 undergone notable
growth over the last 24 hours while the two other regions are
in decline. Region 2192 is the largest and most complex feature
on the visible disk, now a beta-gamma class and may produce further
M-class flares over the next few days. There is the slight chance
of an isolated X class flare. A filament liftoff from the NW
quadrant starting around 0750UT. limited SOHO LASCO images recorded
one or possibly more CMEs starting 0748UT. Analysis will continue
as imagery become available. The solar wind speed remained around
430 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-7nT about neutral
with sustained mild Bz-negative periods. The present solar wind
stream is expected to persist for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 33223322
Cocos Island 11 23223412
Darwin 15 34224323
Townsville 11 33223322
Learmonth 11 33223322
Alice Springs 10 33223312
Norfolk Island 8 33222221
Culgoora 12 332-----
Gingin 12 33224322
Camden 11 34223222
Canberra 7 23122212
Launceston 14 34333322
Hobart 13 34233312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 17 33254322
Casey 20 45433322
Mawson 51 56553733
Davis 34 36543622
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2312 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled with
an isolated Active period at some stations due to extended intervals
of weak Bz southward conditions. Storm levels were reached in
the Antarctic stations. Conditions are expected to be mostly
Quiet to Unsettled 19-21 Oct. Possible isolated Active intervals
next 24 hours should any Bz southward excursions occur.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions for the next 3
days. There is the chance for short-wave fadeouts over the forecast
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding
predicted monthly values. The ionising solar EUV flux is elevated
which should maintain the current levels of ionospheric support
over the forecast period. There is the chance for short-wave
fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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