[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 14 issued 2334 UT on 19 Oct 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 20 10:34:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.1 0506UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours. Region
2192(S13E43) produced a long duration X1 flare which peaked at
0503UT. A CME has not been confirmed from LASCO imagery, but
given the location it is unlikely that this CME is earth directed.
Region 2192 is the largest (> 1200 mils) and most complex (beta-gamma/Fkc),
showed strong growth overnight and hold potential for further
M class flares and a chance of an isolated X class flare during
the forecast period. Background x-ray flux has increased. The
CME associated with the 18 Oct filament eruption is not expected
to impact Earth. Solar wind speeds are presently ~ 420km/s and
Bz component ranged in the neutral +/-5nT. Light (~ 400km/s)
solar wind speeds are expected for the next 48 hours. Elevated
solar wind speed from a coronal hole may take effect day 3, 22
Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22223022
Cocos Island 5 22222021
Darwin 8 23223122
Townsville 7 22223122
Learmonth 8 32223022
Alice Springs 7 22223022
Norfolk Island 6 22112131
Culgoora 7 22223022
Gingin 8 32223122
Camden 7 22223022
Canberra 4 12212021
Launceston 10 33323022
Hobart 9 23323022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 22224121
Casey 18 45432123
Mawson 18 54333232
Davis 22 35444331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3322 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 16 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over
the Australian region. Conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet
to Unsettled 20-21 Oct with possible isolated Active intervals
should any Bz southward excursions occur. Elevated solar wind
speed from a coronal hole may take effect day 3, 22 Oct. Level
of disturbance will depend on direction and duration of the north-south
IMF.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions for the next 3
days. Possible short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over most of
the regions. Expected to continue at or slightly above median
MUFs for next 2 days due to to high levels of ionising EUV flux.
Some isolated depressions are possible during day 3, 22 October
in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. There
was a brief short-wave fadeout (SWF) recorded at some locations
from the long duration X-class Flare from large spot group AR2192
at ~0445UT on the 19th. Short wave fadeouts possible for the
forecast period with a reasonable chance of M and isolated X
flares from AR2192.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 91700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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