[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 18 10:30:29 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during Oct 17. Newly numbered 
region 2192(S13E68) produced several high level C-class flares. 
The magnetic configuration of this region is not determined at 
the time of report issue, however it appears large, complex and 
may produce M-class events over the forecast period. All other 
active regions on the visible disc remained mostly stable and 
quiet over the last 24 hours. The background X ray flux remained 
at C levels. There are no significant Earthward directed CMEs 
in the available LASCO/SOHO images. The solar wind speed remained 
around 430Km/s during Oct 17 and IMF Bz component fluctuating 
+/-5nT about neutral with no significant sustained Bz-negative 
periods. The present solar wind stream is expected to persist 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111112
      Cocos Island         4   22111111
      Darwin               7   33111212
      Townsville           6   23111122
      Learmonth            4   22120111
      Alice Springs        4   22120112
      Norfolk Island       3   22010022
      Culgoora             4   22111112
      Gingin               5   22111122
      Camden               5   22121112
      Canberra             3   22110011
      Launceston           6   23221112
      Hobart               6   23221112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     5   22121112
      Casey               13   44322123
      Mawson              21   34322255
      Davis               12   333232--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2101 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the Australian 
region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days with the 
chance of isolated Unsettled intervals.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions for the next 3 
days. There is the chance for short-wave fadeouts over the forecast 
period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly normal at 
all regions. With large active region 2192 rotating over the 
SE limb, Solar EUV radiation is expected to continue to rise, 
which should support normal to enhanced ionospheric propagation 
conditions next three days. There is the chance for short-wave 
fadeouts over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    88700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list