[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 29 10:30:35 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 181/134


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            185/138

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low. C-class 
flares were produced by regions 2219 (N04W32) and 2222 (S19E47), 
the largest being a C7 from the latter, peaking at 28/0040 UT. 
A CME erupted adjacent to region 2222 at 28/0439 UT, but does 
not appear to be Earth-directed. A large filament lifting off 
from the NW quadrant seems at this stage to be directed above 
the ecliptic. The solar wind was steady around 350 km/s. The 
total IMF has been around 12 nT since 13 UT, while the Bz component 
varied between +/-12 nT, staying mostly northwards.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112222
      Cocos Island         3   11112111
      Darwin               5   21112222
      Townsville           6   22112222
      Learmonth            6   21013222
      Alice Springs        4   12102221
      Norfolk Island       4   11012222
      Culgoora             5   11112222
      Gingin               5   21112122
      Camden               5   11112222
      Canberra             2   10002111
      Launceston           6   21113222
      Hobart               5   21103211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     5   10004211
      Casey               20   34533333
      Mawson              11   22224323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov : 
      Darwin              59   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1210 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Nov     5    Quiet
01 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over 
the last 24 hours were quiet, with unsettled to minor storm levels 
in Antarctica. Unsettled conditions could occur during 29-Nov 
if the IMF Bz turns strongly southward. Quiet conditions are 
expected on 30-Nov, while a predicted lift in the solar wind 
speed is likely to cause unsettled periods on 1-Dec.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Nov   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov   130    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Nov   130    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Dec   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours, with some enhancements at Cocus 
Island and in the south. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced over the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    82700 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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