[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 29 10:30:35 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 181/134
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low. C-class
flares were produced by regions 2219 (N04W32) and 2222 (S19E47),
the largest being a C7 from the latter, peaking at 28/0040 UT.
A CME erupted adjacent to region 2222 at 28/0439 UT, but does
not appear to be Earth-directed. A large filament lifting off
from the NW quadrant seems at this stage to be directed above
the ecliptic. The solar wind was steady around 350 km/s. The
total IMF has been around 12 nT since 13 UT, while the Bz component
varied between +/-12 nT, staying mostly northwards.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 21112222
Cocos Island 3 11112111
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 6 22112222
Learmonth 6 21013222
Alice Springs 4 12102221
Norfolk Island 4 11012222
Culgoora 5 11112222
Gingin 5 21112122
Camden 5 11112222
Canberra 2 10002111
Launceston 6 21113222
Hobart 5 21103211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 10004211
Casey 20 34533333
Mawson 11 22224323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 59 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1210 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Nov 5 Quiet
01 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over
the last 24 hours were quiet, with unsettled to minor storm levels
in Antarctica. Unsettled conditions could occur during 29-Nov
if the IMF Bz turns strongly southward. Quiet conditions are
expected on 30-Nov, while a predicted lift in the solar wind
speed is likely to cause unsettled periods on 1-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 130 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Nov 130 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Dec 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with some enhancements at Cocus
Island and in the south. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to enhanced over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 82700 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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