[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 30 10:30:51 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 177/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low. C-class 
flares were produced by regions 2222 (S21E32) and 2219 (N03W41), 
the largest being a C6 from the latter, peaking at 29/0821 UT. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind varied between 
340 and 440 km/s. The total IMF reduced slightly to around 11 
nT, while the Bz component varied between -11 to +12 nT, staying 
mostly northwards.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22321122
      Cocos Island         5   22221111
      Darwin               6   22221222
      Townsville           7   22321221
      Learmonth            6   22221222
      Alice Springs        7   22321122
      Norfolk Island       5   -2221122
      Culgoora             6   22321121
      Gingin               7   22221132
      Camden               7   22322122
      Canberra             5   11311121
      Launceston           9   22422222
      Hobart               8   22412121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     5   11312111
      Casey               30   45643333
      Mawson              13   33423232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : 
      Darwin              77   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1000 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over 
the last 24 hours were mostly quiet, with a brief unsettled period 
06-09 UT which reached active levels in the south. Conditions 
varied from quiet to major storm levels in the Antarctic. Unsettled 
conditions could occur over Australia during 30-Nov if the IMF 
Bz turns strongly southward. A predicted lift in the solar wind 
speed is likely to cause unsettled periods on 1-2 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Nov   129

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov   135    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Dec   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours, with enhancements at Cocos AND 
Niue Islands and in the south. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced over the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    67700 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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