[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 28 10:30:27 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 179/132


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            185/138            185/138

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from regions 2209 (west limb), 2216 (S13W25) and 
several from region 2222 (S21E59), the largest a C8 peaking at 
27/0047 UT. Region 2222 grew strongly. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed. The solar wind speed rose to peak at 430 km/s 
before declining to around 360 km/s. The IMF BZ component varied 
between -8 and +10 nT. Solar activity is expected to be low to 
moderate for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   13312222
      Cocos Island         6   13211122
      Darwin               9   23312223
      Townsville           8   23312222
      Learmonth            7   23212212
      Alice Springs        7   13212222
      Norfolk Island       7   13302222
      Culgoora             8   13312222
      Gingin               7   23212222
      Camden               8   13312222
      Canberra             6   03202222
      Launceston          11   24312322
      Hobart               9   14302222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     6   23212211
      Casey               25   45543233
      Mawson              15   34323333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin              65   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1011 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Nov     5    Quiet
30 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over 
the last 24 hours were mostly quiet, with an unsettled period 
03-09 UT, reaching active levels in Tasmania and minor storm 
levels in Antarctica. Further unsettled conditions could occur 
during 28-Nov if the IMF Bz turns strongly southward. Quiet conditions 
are expected for 29-30 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Nov   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours, with nighttime enhancements at 
Cocus and Niue Islands. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to slightly enhanced over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    41100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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