[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 27 10:30:38 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 171/125


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
four C-class flares, the largest a C2 from region 2217 (S19E31). 
Region 2219 (N04W06) grew in area. The solar wind speed declined 
to around 300 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly southward, 
to around -5 nT. Low activity is expected for the next 3 days, 
with a chance of M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11112001
      Cocos Island         2   -2111000
      Darwin               3   21112002
      Townsville           3   21112011
      Learmonth            3   21112001
      Alice Springs        2   11112001
      Norfolk Island       1   11111000
      Culgoora             2   11112001
      Gingin               3   21122001
      Camden               2   11112001
      Canberra             1   10011000
      Launceston           2   11112001
      Hobart               2   11112001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     3   11023000
      Casey                9   34322001
      Mawson               9   23223123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov : 
      Darwin              57   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1101 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov     7    Quiet
28 Nov     5    Quiet
29 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian 
region for the last 24 hours, with unsettled to active periods 
in the Antarctic. Some unsettled periods are possible on 27 Nov, 
returning to quiet conditions for 28-29 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: There is a slight chance of shortwave fadeouts over 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Nov   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov   140    Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
28 Nov   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Enhanced 
MUFs are expected to continue over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    70600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list