[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 26 10:30:35 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   162/116            155/109            145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
two C1 flares. An observed CME does not appear to be Earth-directed. 
The solar wind speed varied mostly between 350 and 400 km/s, 
with the IMF BZ component staying in the range -6 to +4 nT, but 
mostly southwards. Low solar activity is expected for the next 
3 days, with a chance of M-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   10111121
      Cocos Island         1   00011111
      Darwin               4   11111122
      Townsville           4   11111122
      Learmonth            2   10011111
      Alice Springs        2   11101111
      Norfolk Island       2   10000022
      Culgoora             4   30110121
      Gingin               2   10111111
      Camden               3   10111121
      Canberra             1   00100021
      Launceston           4   11211121
      Hobart               3   10211121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     3   00122111
      Casey               13   34423212
      Mawson              12   32233323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Darwin              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2111 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov     7    Quiet
27 Nov     7    Quiet
28 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian 
region for the last 24 hours, with unsettled to active periods 
in the Antarctic. Some unsettled periods are possible on 26-27 
Nov, returning to quiet conditions on 28-Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: There is a slight chance of shortwave fadeouts over 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Nov   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Nov   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Nov   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Enhanced 
MUFs are expected to continue over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    72900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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