[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 14 issued 2329 UT on 24 Nov 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 25 10:29:49 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 170/124


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from active regions 2216 (S11E24) and 2217 (S18E66), 
the largest being a C4 from the latter at 24/1104 UT. A small 
filament was observed lifting from the NW quadrant, starting 
24/0126 UT, but appears to be heading above the ecliptic. The 
solar wind speed is around 350 km/s and the IMF BZ component, 
while mostly southward to around -6 nT until about 20 UT, is 
now neutral. Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days, 
with a chance of M-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112221
      Cocos Island         2   21100210
      Darwin               5   21112222
      Townsville           5   12112221
      Learmonth            5   21112212
      Alice Springs        4   11112212
      Norfolk Island       5   21112222
      Culgoora             4   1-112221
      Gingin               6   22112311
      Camden               5   12212221
      Canberra             3   11102211
      Launceston           7   22213222
      Hobart               6   22213211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     8   21114311
      Casey               23   4531----
      Mawson              17   44223433

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   2123 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov     5    Quiet
26 Nov     7    Quiet
27 Nov     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian 
region for the last 24 hours, with brief active to minor storm 
periods in the Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
for 25-Nov, with some unsettled periods possible on 26-27 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: There is a slight chance of shortwave fadeouts over 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov   130    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Nov   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Enhanced 
MUFs are expected to continue over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   145000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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